♬ 
“It would usually be at about this moment that readers would expect this typically #bearish column to issue a stern #warning about the dangers of this speculative dash for trash. But Goldman’s numbers don’t really support it. Over the past 35 years, these spikes in #speculative #trading activity have tended to result in above-average equity market returns over three, six, nine and 12 months. It’s on a two-year view that returns tend to falter.
“The recent rise in speculative trading activity signals near-term upside risk for the broad equity market but also increases the risk of an eventual downturn,” Goldman says.
In #Australia, the evidence is less clear; the history of reversals in momentum like we’ve seen is decidedly up and down, with no clear pattern that would predict how even the next three months go. That said, our market does tend to follow the broad trading patterns and direction of Wall Street.
All we can say is that #investors continue to *bet on absolutely everything going right* – and they’re betting on it in increasingly aggressive ways. History and the numbers do say the party can go on for a while to come, but this level of speculation could make the hangover nasty.”
#OpEd / #feast / #famine <https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/chanticleer-wall-st-global-short-squeeze-20250728-p5mi8d> (paywall) / <https://archive.md/08sG3>
Category: Information
Spoiler: the machine won in a surprising twist of 
BREAKING: The earth shook its booty in Southern Alaska, prompting the 
Meanwhile, the rest of the world nods in feigned concern, while secretly Googling "tsunami" because they forgot what it means. 
