Miguel Afonso Caetano<p>"Hiring has been relatively dormant since Trump took the oath of office. Only 597,000 jobs have been added in the first seven months of the year, a 44 percent drop from the first seven months of 2024, as former Biden economist Heather Boushey notes. The year has seen low hiring and a low quit rate, as people hunker down in the jobs they have. There are fewer entry-level positions and Americans aren’t moving very much for work. That’s a housing story but it’s also a job security story, and the expectations are even worse: The University of Michigan survey shows expectations for a higher unemployment rate next year at the highest level since the Great Recession.</p><p>Maybe artificial intelligence is playing a role here, though concluding that for sure seems premature. Or maybe the behavior of the ill-fated Department of Government Efficiency is filtering down to corporate boardrooms. But the most likely reason for sluggish hiring is the tremendous uncertainty from the tariff announcements, regulatory policy, and Trumpian wild cards. An economy based on individual whim is not one where businesses can plan for the future; indeed, 37,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April, and the subsequent flurry of trade adjustments.</p><p>I think you can see the consequences of uncertainty come forward in the explosion in corporate stock buybacks; that’s a sign of retrenchment, where money that could be deployed or invested is instead pushed out to shareholders. No wonder markets are near all-time highs while ordinary workers feel miserable.</p><p>The only area where this investment retrenchment and uncertainty is not in evidence comes from the insane capital expenditures for AI computing power, which is propping up the economy almost by itself. That’s why municipal pushback to data centers will be one of the more fascinating developments."</p><p><a href="https://prospect.org/economy/2025-08-19-what-us-economy-really-looks-like/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">prospect.org/economy/2025-08-1</span><span class="invisible">9-what-us-economy-really-looks-like/</span></a><br><a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/USA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>USA</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Trump</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/Economy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Economy</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/Crisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Crisis</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AI</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/GenerativeAI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>GenerativeAI</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/PoliticalEconomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>PoliticalEconomy</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/Unemployment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Unemployment</span></a></p>