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#geopolitics

252 posts52 participants2 posts today
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…The aggressive push for a deal by #Trump’s admin is a blow to #Europe’s leaders, who have spent weeks attempting to shore up #Ukraine’s position by brokering peace talks w/the #UnitedStates. The first effort convened last week in Paris & another session was set to start Wed in London before #MarcoRubio announced that he would no longer attend.

Rubio’s decision to cancel caught the British govt off guard, …David Lammy, the foreign secretary, had fully expected him….

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“The current lines, or somewhere close to them, is where you’re ultimately, I think, going to draw the new lines in the conflict,” Vance added. “Now, of course, that means the Ukrainians & the Russians are both going to have to give up some of the territory they currently own.” [um, seems like it’s just the Ukrainians]

#JDVance did not say what territory #Russia would have to give up. Russia currently occupies 18.7% of #Ukraine….

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In his statement, #Trump accused #Zelensky of making “inflammatory” statements that he claimed would prolong the war [#gaslighting #lies #projection]

“If he wants #Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it 11 years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?” Trump [moronically] wrote. “The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the “killing field,” & nobody wants that!”

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#JDVance’s comments came just hours after President #Zelensky said his country will never accept #Russia’s 2014 #occupation of #Crimea as legal, adding that doing so would violate Ukraine’s #Constitution. He also said that Ukraine could not accept any prohibition against becoming part of #NATO.
“There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine,”Zelensky told reporters.

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“We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians & the Ukrainians, & it’s time for them to either say yes or for the #UnitedStates to walk away from this process.…The only way to really stop the killing is for the armies to both put down their weapons, to freeze this thing and to get on with the business of actually building a better #Russia & a better #Ukraine,” #JDVance said.

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It was the first time a #US official had publicly laid out a plan to end the war that favors #Russia in such stark terms.

A *peace* plan that leaves Russian forces deep inside eastern #Ukraine would be welcome news in Moscow. #Putin has said for almost year that he would accept a *cease-fire* in which Ukraine withdraws troops from the 4 regions that Russia has *claimed* as its own & drops its aspirations to join #NATO.

Washington's erratic tantrums, from self-defeating tariffs to dollar weaponization, make Beijing look like the adult in the room.

Even nations at odds with China know its policies follow cold, rational self-interest. Meanwhile, America increasingly resembles a gambler burning his own house down to spite the neighbors.

When choosing partners, predictability trumps ideology, and China’s consistency is now the safer bet in an unhinged world.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) predicts a US recession by the end of 2025. The economy is expected to shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4.

Inflation, as measured by core PCE, could reach 4.6% by year-end due to tariffs.
The Fed is projected to make six rate cuts, three in the second half of 2025 and three in 2026.

The downturn is described as "self-inflicted," caused by shifting tariff policy.

wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-mar