The Risk of Space Junk hitting Planes is rising in the Era of SpaceX.
The researchers behind the study, from the University of British Columbia in Canada, looked at worldwide flight data to model the distribution of planes in the sky, then compared this to records of uncontrolled rocket body reentries.
![The increasing risk is also being driven in part by the mass deployment of satellites [like SpaceX's Starlink], which will eventually reenter our airspace.
As more satellites and rockets are sent into orbit, and more planes take to the skies, the chances of a hit are growing, the researchers found. Even though we have the technology to track falling space debris to some extent, that's still a major concern.
<https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-air-passenger-traffic-evolution-1980-2020>
"The highest-density regions, around major airports, have a 0.8 percent chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry," write the researchers in their published paper. "This rate rises to 26 percent for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region."](https://nerdculture.de/system/media_attachments/files/114/466/045/075/557/955/original/d235753dc6a6396a.jpeg "The increasing risk is also being driven in part by the mass deployment of satellites [like SpaceX's Starlink], which will eventually reenter our airspace.
As more satellites and rockets are sent into orbit, and more planes take to the skies, the chances of a hit are growing, the researchers found. Even though we have the technology to track falling space debris to some extent, that's still a major concern.
<https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-air-passenger-traffic-evolution-1980-2020>
\"The highest-density regions, around major airports, have a 0.8 percent chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry,\" write the researchers in their published paper. \"This rate rises to 26 percent for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region.\"")
![[ImageSource: Wright et al., Scientific Reports, 2025]
The researchers tracked the density of air traffic across the world.
According to The Aerospace Corporation, the likelihood of a fatal plane collision with an object falling from space was close to 1 in 100,000 in 2021. What's more, even the smallest chunk of a rocket or satellite that's burning up could bring a plane down [making it difficult to guarantee passenger safety]. Estimates suggest something as small as one gram could cause damage if it made contact with the aircraft windshield or engine.
<https://ntrl.ntis.gov/NTRL/dashboard/searchResults/titleDetail/ADA388624.xhtml>
The researchers say: “Those putting the objects in the sky could invest in controlled rocket reentry. While the tech for this already exists, less than 35 percent of launches currently make use of it, leaving the safety burden on the aviation industry.”
<https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023>
Efforts continue to improve safety both inside and outside Earth's atmosphere, but they require buy-in from government agencies and private companies. It shouldn't take a disaster to force action to be taken.
"Over 2,300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner," write the researchers. "Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come."](https://nerdculture.de/system/media_attachments/files/114/466/046/679/318/150/original/d44659f6c061fd7d.png "[ImageSource: Wright et al., Scientific Reports, 2025]
The researchers tracked the density of air traffic across the world.
According to The Aerospace Corporation, the likelihood of a fatal plane collision with an object falling from space was close to 1 in 100,000 in 2021. What's more, even the smallest chunk of a rocket or satellite that's burning up could bring a plane down [making it difficult to guarantee passenger safety]. Estimates suggest something as small as one gram could cause damage if it made contact with the aircraft windshield or engine.
<https://ntrl.ntis.gov/NTRL/dashboard/searchResults/titleDetail/ADA388624.xhtml>
The researchers say: “Those putting the objects in the sky could invest in controlled rocket reentry. While the tech for this already exists, less than 35 percent of launches currently make use of it, leaving the safety burden on the aviation industry.”
<https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023>
Efforts continue to improve safety both inside and outside Earth's atmosphere, but they require buy-in from government agencies and private companies. It shouldn't take a disaster to force action to be taken.
\"Over 2,300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner,\" write the researchers. \"Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come.\"")
#smash a #Tesla #Dont #Buy a #Swasticar | the #Fascist #Thing on #Wheels #art #project #battery #recycled | #Everyone #Hates #Elon #sledge #hammer #helmet #break #window #junk #yard #car #PresidentMusk #Musk #critics #London https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/10/sledgehammer-wielding-musk-critics-smash-up-tesla-in-london-art-project
@h2onolan i think it is more like the wild west frantically trying to catch up at this point and doing a bad job at it (both parties) #junk bonds #accountability #house of cards
Oh wow, #groundbreaking revelation: #data #centers are full of #useless junk! 
Who could have ever guessed that storing every blurry cat photo and draft email was bad for the environment? 
Let's all pretend this isn't just stating the #obvious in a thousand words. 
https://gerrymcgovern.com/data-centers-contain-90-crap-data/ #revelation #environment #junk #statement #HackerNews #ngated
@ajroach42 
speed running the #junk to #antique pipeline….
The most meta Oscar award goes to a painting of an Oscar award (for Clark Gable and Marilyn Monroe). Someone wants $600 for this?!?! #oscaroscar #junk
Trailer #3 is going to be the real challenge.
It's still packed full of crap, has one tyre that isn't seated on the rusty wheel and without valve and one metal wheel. At least that can't go flat.
Also, there's lots of crap underneath, including more cans of mystery fluids that I haven't even inspected/sniffed yet.
And there's a ton of stuff in front blocking it in. But it's gotta go so I can turn this barn into a workshop.
New entry of AI-generated #comics and #jokes added to our #website:
comics.lucentinian.com/2543
#AIComedy #AIGeneratedJokes #NewsLaughs #AIJokes #VisitUsNow
Contact in Columbia (the country) on a curtain road, LOL. Contact with HK1T #hamradio #junk #antenna
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQQMgdgpErY
Looks like I have a 15m curtain rod. (Antenna). #hamradio #antenna #doesittune #junk
It's almost the Holiday season again and everywhere I'm seeing test reports about #Bluetooth #headphones.
I've burned through at least four pairs just to go back to a wired model and a USB-C->3.5 mm adapter.
They spontaneously broke across vendors; Bose, Sennheiser, cheap Amazon Basic; so I'm sitting on a small pile of plastic and electronic #junk which isn't even worth disassembling for salvaging components.
Can't we just agree that mobile phones shall have 3.5 mm connectors again?
Typical things you can find in our grass: A solid steel rod, about 30mm diameter, 7 meters long.
The lawn mower luckily managed to just about mow over it, rather than into it. Pried it out and dragged it over to the rest of the steel treasure hoard.
#ThamesWater credit ratings slashed to lower levels of #junk as default fears grow
#S&P and #Moody’s cut ratings by five notches on risk troubled company will run out of cash
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/26/thames-water-credit-ratings-slashed-to-lower-levels-of-junk-as-default-fears-grow
#RenationaliseWithoutCompensation #England
Sorted this pile of junk in the attic. Looking to see if there's something I can build a bed from, since we're going to need one.
Surprise, not junk at all, it was mostly really nice planed beechwood. Or at least I think it's beech. A little worse for wear from being stored like that, some glue on the edges, lots of dust and cobwebs, but far from junk.
A few are even long enough for a bed project. Will have to do some sketching.
