Here is a breakdown of the short-term and long-term threats posed by Donald Trump’s Project 2025 Agenda currently in progress:
SHORT-TERM RISKS (0–12 MONTHS)
Housing Market
Rental Market:
• Demand shock: Sudden drop in tenants, especially in urban areas with high undocumented populations.
• Vacancy surge: Low- to mid-tier rental units see increased turnover.
• Rent price drops: 5–15% decline in cities like Los Angeles, Houston, and Phoenix.
Home Sales:
• Limited immediate change: Most undocumented immigrants are renters.
• Investor pullback: Landlords lose rental income, triggering minor sell-offs in vulnerable metro markets.
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Food Supply Chains
Labor Disruption:
• ~50% of U.S. crop workers are undocumented (USDA/NAWS).
• Deportations would cripple harvesting, especially for labor-intensive crops (e.g. berries, lettuce, dairy).
Short-Term Results:
• Produce shortages, price spikes (10–30%) on perishable goods.
• Farm losses due to unharvested crops; some farms could cease operations.
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Manufacturing
Labor Bottlenecks:
• Significant reliance on undocumented and immigrant labor in meatpacking, textiles, and food processing.
• Disruptions in line production and lower plant productivity.
Resulting Effects:
• Production delays and cost increases in consumer goods.
• Possible short-term regional inflation in sectors like packaged food, furniture, and auto parts.
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Tariff Impacts
If tariffs are introduced alongside deportations (e.g., on Chinese or Mexican goods):
• Increased import prices: Tariffs on essentials raise prices for households already hit by housing and food disruptions.
• Supply chain disruption: U.S. agriculture and auto sectors—reliant on global supply chains—face higher costs.
Short-Term Impact:
• Higher consumer prices, especially on electronics, groceries, and construction materials.
• Strain on low-income families as rents drop but food and goods costs rise.
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LONG-TERM RISKS (1–4 YEARS)
Housing Market
Rental Market:
• Persistently lower demand in immigrant-heavy states.
• Neighborhood decline: Higher vacancy leads to urban disinvestment.
Home Sales:
• Price stagnation or decline in impacted metros (2–10% drop).
• Reduced new construction due to lower population growth and reduced labor force.
Construction Labor:
• ~25–30% of construction workers are foreign-born; deportations deepen shortages.
• Slower housing starts, especially in TX, AZ, FL, CA, OR and WA.
• Higher building costs, fewer affordable housing developments.
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Food Supply Chains
Long-Term Effects:
• Farm closures: Long-term labor vacuum can’t be filled by domestic workers (citizens show low uptake despite higher wages).
• Increased automation, but this takes time and capital investment.
• Rural economic decline in ag-heavy states (CA, OR, WA, FL, GA).
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Manufacturing
Long-Term Outcomes:
• Offshoring acceleration: Companies move production abroad to avoid domestic labor constraints.
• Slowed growth in food processing, plastics, and apparel sectors.
• Reduced competitiveness for small and mid-sized manufacturers.
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Tariff Policy Implications
If paired with restrictive trade policies:
• Chronic supply chain issues: Combined labor loss and tariffs may lead to:
• Delays in affordable housing materials
• Higher grocery store inflation
• Rising inflation risks despite falling rent/home prices
• Weaker U.S. global economic position