Aus Gründen: "Das bedeutet, dass Sie jetzt eine Menge Geld für sehr kurzfristigen Nutzen ausgeben."
#JevonsParadox: keine Death-Metal-Band, sondern #InducedDemand
Quelle: "abctv" (jetzt ABC Australia) leicht satirisch 11. Oktober 2019 bei Twitter #OneMoreLaneWillFixIt #A100 https://x.com/ABCTV/status/1182468049011535872
@ADFCKoeln Das ist zumidest interessant, weil es der Erwartung widerspricht, dass die Straße (das Angebot) den Verkehr (die Nachfrage) selbst erzeugt.
This happens again and again. Efficiency improvements promise a green sustainable future, but end up delivering just more economic growth, equating more ecological destruction.
The more efficient something is, the cheaper it becomes, the more it will be used, with less care and consideration.
If I had a band, I’d probably call it “Jevons Paradox.” (Check out the hashtag #JevonsParadox if you’re not sure what that is.) What would YOUR band name be?
Why “better vehicles” will never solve our congestion and pollution problems, and are (at most) part of the solution (remembering that they actually lead to more driving via #JevonsParadox). The more important part will always be fewer cars and less driving, fueled by better cities and more choices.
US drivers log 3.28 trillion m...
"As the climate crisis deepens, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a contested force: some champion its potential to advance renewable energy, materials discovery, and large-scale emissions monitoring, while others underscore its growing carbon footprint, water consumption, and material resource demands. Much of this debate has concentrated on direct impact -- energy and water usage in data centers, e-waste from frequent hardware upgrades -- without addressing the significant indirect effects. This paper examines how the problem of Jevons' Paradox applies to AI, whereby efficiency gains may paradoxically spur increased consumption. We argue that understanding these second-order impacts requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining lifecycle assessments with socio-economic analyses. Rebound effects undermine the assumption that improved technical efficiency alone will ensure net reductions in environmental harm. Instead, the trajectory of AI's impact also hinges on business incentives and market logics, governance and policymaking, and broader social and cultural norms. We contend that a narrow focus on direct emissions misrepresents AI's true climate footprint, limiting the scope for meaningful interventions. We conclude with recommendations that address rebound effects and challenge the market-driven imperatives fueling uncontrolled AI growth. By broadening the analysis to include both direct and indirect consequences, we aim to inform a more comprehensive, evidence-based dialogue on AI's role in the climate crisis."
"US Solar Boom Continues, But It's Offset By Rising Power Use "
Just what we were talking about yesterday! @glynmoody
#jevonsParadox
So, a layperson's questions about #Deepseek
I see a lot of talk about it being more efficient because it runs on less powerful chips. But what is not clear to me by what order of magnitude.
I'm concerned about the #climate impact of so-called #AI
And if it's more efficient, won't this just lead to even more usage and in the end more energy and resource consumption due to #JevonsParadox ?
#ClimateDiary
But the part that’s maybe the MOST concerning is our well established tendency (see #JevonsParadox) to buy more/bigger vehicles & drive them further if we think they’ve gotten better (“greener”). We KNOW the resulting more/bigger cars & kms driven have been outpacing the benefits of “better cars.”
The tyranny of automobility and sprawl
While the Bellingen /Gleniffer area is transitioning from an ‘idyllic tourist town’ into a ‘normal Aussie suburb’ (of Coffs Harbour), road congestion gets everyone stuck in traffic.
Car dependent motorists in their SUVs and bloated oversized trucks demand more and wider roads, larger car parking and a right to pothole-free roads for their 'sports utility vehicles’.
Extreme commuting for the necessaries of life are conducted in big private vehicles powered by fossil fuel. An aggregate of ugly big-box stores (large format retail, Coffs) with hostile giant car parks deliver what consumers desire. These consumption hubs are mostly inaccessible to pedestrians and can be dangerous ‘non-places’ (Marc Augé).
The mobility design of old school traffic engineers responds to the sprawling expansion with more of the same: more roads, wider roads and bypassing the last bypass. They call it ‘upgrades’.
As the latest $2.2 billion highway or forest road ‘upgrade/s’ are blasting their way through the landscape, they are silent about the ‘public bads’: the destroyed biodiversity habitat, the downgraded neighbourhoods, the violence and the polluted biosphere.
The ‘normality’ of automobility, or the 'car in the head' in petromodernity together with regulatory inertia make a transition to alternative land uses, energy systems, mobilities and ways of being a challenge.
“Even if autonomous vehicles eventually work perfectly — an enormous ‘if’ — they are likely to increase total emissions and crash deaths, simply because people will use them so much.” Good explanation of #JevonsParadox by @davidzipper in @verge.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/2/24232386/self-driving-car-jevons-paradox-robotaxi-waymo-cruise
Every time someone says "AI making programmers more productive will mean that companies will lay off programmers" I just say: #JevonsParadox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
_Every Single Time_ programmer productivity had increased in the past, the size of the industry has _Increased_, not gone down.
"There is no need to lose our minds over the #JevonsParadox
…
In my lifetime, energy consumption per person in the UK has fallen by one-third, while carbon dioxide emissions per person have fallen by nearly 60 per cent. As Hannah Ritchie explains in her book 'Not the End of the World', while some of this fall reflects the offshoring of manufacturing to other countries, most of it does not. Energy efficiency really has reduced energy consumption."
https://timharford.com/2024/06/there-is-no-need-to-lose-our-minds-over-the-jevons-paradox/
Trotz maroder Straßen und Brücken und kaum sinkender #Emissionen im #Verkehrssektor planen #Wissing und das @bmdv den Bau 3000 km neuer Bundes- und 850 km neuer #Autobahnen. Begründet wird dies mit der gleitenden Langfrist-Verkehrsprognose "Prognose 2022", nach der ein starker Anstieg des Pkw- und Lkw-Verkehrs erwartet wird.
Eine von #Greenpeace und #TransportAndEnvironment in Auftrag gebene und von #Prognos durchgeführte Studie zeigt, dass die dieser Prognose zugrunde liegenden Annahmen das Nicht-Handeln des Verkehrsministeriums in Sachen #Klimaschutz fortschreiben. So kommt es zu einer selbsterfüllenden Prophezeiung und einem selbstverstärkenden Effekt: Weil #Wissing keine wirksamen Klimaschutz-Maßnahmen beschließen möchte, wird der Kfz-Verkehr weiter steigen, weshalb mehr Straßen benötigt werden, welche zu noch mehr Kfz-Verkehr und Emissionen führen.
Würden effektive #Klimaschutz-Maßnahmen eingeführt und einige fragwürdige Annahmen der Studie realistischer eingeschätzt, würde der motorisierte Inidividualverkehr der Prognos-Studie zufolge von 917 Mrd. Personenkilometern im Jahr 2019 schon bis 2030 auf 673 Mrd. sinken (eine Reduktion um knapp 27%), während er in der "Prognose 2022" des BMDV – nach einem leichten vorübergehenden Rückgang – bis 2051 auf 951 Mrd. Personenkilometer zunimmt (ein Anstieg um knapp 4%).
Zu den wirksamsten Maßnahmen, den #Autoverkehr zu reduzieren, gehören in absteigender Reihenfolge
#PkwMaut einführen Entwicklung #CO2Preis (2027: 200€/t, 2030: 242€/t, Grundlage sind die modellierten Grenzvermeidungskosten) #Dieselprivileg abschaffen #Tempolimit einführen (Autobahnen 120km/h, außerorts 80km/h) #Radwege ausbauen #ÖPNV-Angebot verbessern #Deutschlandtakt #49EuroTicket beibehalten
Beim #LkwVerkehr tragen hauptsächlich der höhere #CO2Preis und die Abschaffung des Dieselprivilegs dazu bei, dass der Verkehr weniger stark ansteigt als in der Prognose des BMDV (plus 20% statt plus 54% Tonnenkilomer)
https://www.greenpeace.de/publikationen/greenpeace-verkehrsszenario
@verkehrswende
#Verkehrswende #BVWP #Bundesverkehrswegeplan #Autoverkehr #PkwVerkehr #LkwVerkehr #Straßenbau #Autobahnbau #MIV #induzierterVerkehr #induzierteNachfrage #Verkehrserzeugung #DownsThomsonParadox #BraessParadoxon #JevonsParadox
#CO2Preis #Dieselprivileg #ÖPNV #ÖSPV #Radinfrastruktur #PkwMaut #LkwMaut #Deutschlandtakt #Tempolimit
#Güterverkehr #Klimanotstand #GutesKlimaGesetz #BVerfG #Art20aGG #KlimaschutzIstMenschenrecht
#Zündung
@mnl It's commendable whenever that actually happens.
However, #JevonsParadox / #ReboundEffect suggests that the "saved mental energy" there will _mostly_ (i.e. industry-wide) not be invested into higher quality elsewhere, but into generating more of that which got more efficient.
@klimareporter ... mit einer Steigerung der Effizienz lassen sich die Klimaziele aber auch nicht erreichen. Das führt einfach zu einem höheren Verbrauch und mehr Konsum #JevonsParadox #ReboundEffect. Erst in Verbindung mit Knappheit/Rationierung kann Effizienz einen Beitrag leisten. Dann ist sie aber kein Mittel mehr für Klimaschutz, sondern eine Reaktion auf Knappheit und passiert gezwungener Maßen "von ganz alleine". Ansonsten werden nur Mittel frei für mehr Konsum in anderen Bereichen.
@alcinnz I've been coming back to this article for the past couple of days, there's a lot of good in it. The idea that financial price is only a subset of total price or cost is excellent.
The essay also anticipates a point I'd considered, though that can be extended:
[W]e reflexively overindulge in entertainment and other low-second-price pleasures –- phone apps, streaming services, and processed food — even though their rewards are often only marginally better than doing nothing.
I'd argue that this isn't just demand side (that is, personal behaviour), but very consciously and deliberately supply-side: commercial interests try to line up "consumption opportunities" where the public has low costs for additional consumption. There's "junk food" entertainment, literal junk food (food being something that's consumed on an ongoing basis), broadcast and streaming markets, endless scroll, captive markets (travelers, tours, students, patients, inmates, ...), etc., etc. The sell / buy / consume dynamic just keeps on keeping on.
There's also a great line by wilderness-travel writer Joseph Wood Krutch: ""bad roads act as filters... bad roads bring good people, good roads bring bad people".
Sometimes simplified to "A bad road is a good filter."
#JosephWoodKrutch http://www.escapist.com/baja/books.htm
That is, raise the 2nd price, or other associated prices, with a destination, experience, or product, and you'll find that those who find their way there or seek out that experience tend to be a useful social filter. It's something of a melding of #GreshamsLaw and the #JevonsParadox.
Edit: #MoarHashtags
"Ohne #Rebound-Effekt und Wachstum funktioniert dieses Wirtschaftssystem nicht." #JevonsParadox in der Praxis: warum die #Effizienzsteigerung bei uns bisher kaum zu weniger Verbrauch geführt hat und das in Zukunft auch nicht passieren wird:
https://www.telepolis.de/features/Rebound-Effekt-Wie-aus-dem-Mini-ein-Maxi-wurde-7482981.html
#TalkCollapse #Klimakrise #Klimakollaps #Energiekrise
“It's well-demonstrated that you can't build your way out of traffic congestion by building roads — the more you build, the more people drive. As the saying goes, building more lanes to address congestion is like loosening your belt to address obesity.” The Law of Traffic Congestion, according to “The Flash!” My Planetizen article. https://www.planetizen.com/node/53659 #InducedDemand #cities #cars #urbanism #transportation #traffic #congestion #city #car #InducedTraffic #JevonsParadox #Flash
“We found that there’s this perfect one-to-one relationship. If a city increased its road capacity by 10%, then the amount of driving in that city went up by 10%.” One of the earliest, and still one of the best articles on why building bigger roads just leads to more driving. Call it #InducedDemand, or #JevonsParadox, or the #LawOfCongestion. Via WIRED, it’s worth a read and share.
https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/
#cities #transportation #urbanism #city #cars
A
